fix(splits): the cutover date, not a boolean, is what gates a balance

Nothing dated before 2026-01-09 can be owed, because carryover transaction 2348
already carries the entire pre-cutover balance as a single figure. ACTIVE_OBLIGATION
now says so directly.

This inverts which mechanism is load-bearing, and that is the point. Until now
the only thing keeping $37,233.28 of paid debt out of the balances was
transaction_splits.settled -- a boolean that any delete-and-recreate write path
resets to false, as the split modal did until commit 6add958. Losing the flag on
a pre-cutover row now costs nothing: the date still excludes it. The flag matters
only on or after the cutover, marking the few settled outside this app.

It also makes splitting history safe to do freely. A split on a 2024 grocery
shop can now describe how the expense was shared -- which is what stops it
inflating spend -- without asserting a debt that was settled years ago. That was
the whole reason not to split pre-2026 expenses, and it no longer applies.

The bound is inclusive because transaction 2348 is itself dated 2026-01-09; an
exclusive one would drop the carryover and with it the entire pre-cutover
balance.

Corrects one live figure: a Woolworths on 2026-01-06 was split 50/50 three days
before the cutover, double-counting $7.55 against the carryover. Sonu
$5,428.08 -> $5,420.53.

The test fixture default moved to 2026-06-15 -- it was 2024-06-15, which is now
pre-cutover and made every balance fixture read zero. That the suite caught this
is the guard working.

src/__tests__/integration/helpers.ts

@@ -73,7 +73,10 @@ export async function insertTransaction(
      VALUES ($1, NULL, $2, $3, $4, $5, $6, 0) RETURNING id`,
     [
       ownerId,
-      overrides.transaction_date ?? "2024-06-15",
+      // Post-cutover by default: a split on an older transaction never counts
+      // towards a balance (ACTIVE_OBLIGATION), so a pre-cutover default would
+      // make every balance fixture silently read zero.
+      overrides.transaction_date ?? "2026-06-15",
       overrides.description ?? "Test transaction",
       overrides.amount ?? 100,
       overrides.transaction_type ?? "debit",

src/__tests__/integration/queries.test.ts

@@ -666,3 +666,58 @@ describe("superseded duplicates are excluded but kept", () => {
     ).rejects.toThrow();
   });
 });
+
+// Nothing before the cutover can be owed: carryover transaction 2348 already
+// carries the entire pre-cutover balance as one figure. Splits on older
+// transactions exist to describe how an expense was shared -- which keeps it
+// out of spend -- without asserting a debt.
+describe("the split cutover gates every balance", () => {
+  it("ignores a split on a transaction before the cutover", async () => {
+    const { ownerId, otherId } = await seedParticipants(pool);
+    const txId = await insertTransaction(pool, ownerId, {
+      amount: 100, transaction_date: "2026-01-08",
+    });
+    await pool.query(
+      `INSERT INTO transaction_splits (transaction_id, participant_id, share_percent) VALUES ($1, $2, 50)`,
+      [txId, otherId]
+    );
+
+    const balances = await getParticipantBalances(ownerId);
+    const bob = balances.find((b) => b.id === otherId);
+    expect(Number(bob?.total_owed ?? 0)).toBeCloseTo(0);
+  });
+
+  // Inclusive: transaction 2348, which carries the whole pre-cutover balance,
+  // is itself dated 2026-01-09. An exclusive bound would drop it.
+  it("counts a split dated exactly on the cutover", async () => {
+    const { ownerId, otherId } = await seedParticipants(pool);
+    const txId = await insertTransaction(pool, ownerId, {
+      amount: 100, transaction_date: "2026-01-09",
+    });
+    await pool.query(
+      `INSERT INTO transaction_splits (transaction_id, participant_id, share_percent) VALUES ($1, $2, 50)`,
+      [txId, otherId]
+    );
+
+    const balances = await getParticipantBalances(ownerId);
+    const bob = balances.find((b) => b.id === otherId);
+    expect(Number(bob!.total_owed)).toBeCloseTo(50);
+  });
+
+  // The point of the date guard: it does not depend on `settled` surviving.
+  it("still ignores a pre-cutover split whose settled flag was lost", async () => {
+    const { ownerId, otherId } = await seedParticipants(pool);
+    const txId = await insertTransaction(pool, ownerId, {
+      amount: 200, transaction_date: "2025-06-01",
+    });
+    await pool.query(
+      `INSERT INTO transaction_splits (transaction_id, participant_id, share_percent, settled)
+       VALUES ($1, $2, 50, false)`,
+      [txId, otherId]
+    );
+
+    const balances = await getParticipantBalances(ownerId);
+    const bob = balances.find((b) => b.id === otherId);
+    expect(Number(bob?.total_owed ?? 0)).toBeCloseTo(0);
+  });
+});

src/lib/analytics-sql.ts

@@ -217,9 +217,29 @@ END`;
  * deliberately no "mark settled" action anywhere: settling up is recording a
  * payment, and this column is only ever written by the historical import.
  *
- * Assumes the `transaction_splits` alias is `ts`.
+ * **The date is the real guard, and the flag is only a refinement of it.**
+ * Nothing before SPLIT_CUTOVER can be owed, because carryover transaction 2348
+ * already carries the entire pre-cutover balance as a single figure. A split on
+ * an older transaction is therefore free to describe *how an expense was shared*
+ * — which is what stops it inflating spend — without ever asserting a debt.
+ *
+ * That separation is what makes splitting history safe. Before it, the only
+ * thing keeping $37,233.28 of paid debt out of the balances was a boolean that
+ * any delete-and-recreate write path silently reset to false. Now losing the
+ * flag on a pre-cutover row costs nothing: the date still excludes it. The flag
+ * matters only for rows on or after the cutover, where it marks the handful
+ * settled outside this app.
+ *
+ * The boundary is inclusive because transaction 2348 is itself dated
+ * 2026-01-09 — an exclusive bound would drop the carryover and with it the
+ * entire pre-cutover balance.
+ *
+ * Assumes the `transaction_splits` alias is `ts` and `transactions` is `t`.
  */
-export const ACTIVE_OBLIGATION = `ts.settled = false`;
+export const SPLIT_CUTOVER = "2026-01-09";
+
+export const ACTIVE_OBLIGATION = `ts.settled = false
+  AND t.transaction_date >= '${SPLIT_CUTOVER}'`;
 
 /**
  * The tab a split belongs to: its transaction's trip, else the household.